2021年市场预测：SRA经济学家对萨省房地产市场持乐观态度

        Yogi Berra：“做预测很难，尤其是对未来的预测。”去年有关COVID的关于房地产市场的所有预测都表明他是对的。之前有一些人预测销售将大大下降，还有人认为价格将下降18％。

        而且，我们有充分的理由相信这些可怕的预测：萨斯喀彻温省已经处于衰退之中，2019年的GDP下降了0.7％。然后全球COVID-19受到打击，使大多数经济体陷入衰退。然而，正如2020年所显示的那样，对房地产市场的预测是完全错误的，该省的销售额跃升了24.5％，而中位数价格上涨了1.2％。

        但是，出台的各种刺激措施已帮助经济再次复苏，加拿大的五家大银行预计萨斯喀彻温省的经济将在2021年增长4.1％至4.8％，[1]而在2022年略微下降至3.2％至4.6％。2022年。由于经济复苏，银行还预计失业率将持续下降到2022年。尽管萨斯喀彻温市场面临长期结构性挑战，但目前的乐观情绪为强劲的[住宅]房地产奠定了基础。

加拿大五家大银行预测经济成长率

加拿大五家大银行预测失业率

        消费者也相当有信心，并期望在2021年增加支出水平，这将进一步有助于刺激经济。在线经纪人（Nesto）发现，有60％的加拿大人打算购买新房产，而一项莱格（Leger）调查（针对RE/MAX进行）发现，有52％的加拿大认为房地产是2021年最好的投资之一。

        加拿大皇家银行RBC的一项民意调查发现，尽管只有18％的加拿大人认为经济稳定，但几乎有45％的人认为房地产市场仍然强劲。同一项民意调查还发现，五分之四的人认为拥有房屋是一项不错的投资。

        根据Bloomberg-Nanos的调查，在大草原地区，有23.2％的受访者认为房价将在未来六个月内上涨（高于11月的12.3％），而有12.9％的人认为他们的财务状况要比房价高。一年前（从12月的4.2％的低点上升）。

这表明，现在购买, 比等待而不得花更多的钱要好。

        这种乐观是有道理的。尽管疫情在某些人的财务上（尤其是在酒店和零售业中）困难重重，但那些能够在家工作并能够继续工作的人通常比疫情前更富裕。

        由于疫情的限制，人们被迫储蓄，平均起来，加拿大人在2020年能够储蓄的可支配收入几乎是过去几年的五倍，并且家庭净资产在疫情开始的前六个月增加了至少$ 600B。

        尽管随着限制的放宽，储蓄率可能会下降，但事实是人们有更多的积蓄可以用来支付新房的首付。而且，由于利率处于如此低的水平，潜在买家的工作不受COVID的影响，因此应该觉得这是一个非常有吸引力的购买时机。

        那么，这对萨省市场有什么暗示呢？

        直到2020年3月该省进入封锁之前，自2012年2月以来，季节性调整的库存一直稳定增长，这表明供应增加/需求下降，自2014年10月以来对价格造成了下行压力。

        毫不奇怪，萨省MLS®数据显示2020年3月和4月的库存激增，当时几乎没有销售（由于COVID限制），随后库存急剧下降，8月有所减缓，但持续下降。同时，我们看到价格上涨。

        然后在销售方面，我们看到自2012年以来最强劲的1月份（2021年），而与此同时，新上市的房源数量继续下降，这表明需求强劲而供应疲软，这种状况可能会继续施加上行压力价格，使准买家更难获得他们想要的房屋。

        同样，我们已经看到了满足强劲需求的条件。预计经济将增长，失业率预计将下降，我们处于非常低的利率环境中，人们拥有更多的储蓄。

        我们也知道房屋建筑商未能跟上需求的增加，只会帮助扩大供应缺口，给价格带来更大的上行压力，使人们更难以购买房屋。

        尽管许多人希望COVID疫苗成为灵丹妙药并帮助全球经济在2021年恢复正常，但各种因素（例如反疫苗情绪，疫苗的分发）可能会阻碍消除这种疫情努力。我们已经看到疫苗的运送延迟，并且要花一些时间为世界各地足够的人们接种疫苗以真正提供保护。

        因此，即使打了疫苗，我们可能也不会看到人们经常出差，而且我们仍然无法大量聚集。人们可能会继续呆在家里，琢磨着换房或者翻新房子。这可能会给房地产市场带来更多就像2020年一样的利好，对于那些错过了去年繁荣时期的人来说，这是一个绝佳的机会。

Chris Gbekorbu, Economic Analyst
Saskatchewan REALTORS® Association

306-791-2706 

[1]央行预测2021年第一季度将出现负增长；中行表示：“联邦政府推出其大规模的COVID-19疫苗接种计划已“拉开了实现广泛免疫的时间表，并改善了中期的增长前景。” “在病毒得到控制并且不需要进行物理疏散之前，经济复苏的恢复阶段很可能会保持震荡和不平衡。继续需要大量的财政和货币刺激以支持家庭和企业。”

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以下为英文原文：

2021 Market Forecast: SRA Economist Optimistic About Sask Housing Market

March 30th, 2021

Yogi Berra said that “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”. And all of the predictions about the housing market in response to COVID last year certainly show that he was right. Some predicted that sales would drop significantly while others suggested that prices would fall up to 18%.

And there was good reason to believe in those dire predictions: Saskatchewan was already in a recession, with its GDP having fallen 0.7% in 2019; and then the global COVID-19 pandemic hit, which plunged most economies into a recession. Yet as 2020 showed, the predictions for the real estate market were completely wrong, with sales in the province jumping 24.5% while median prices rose 1.2%.

But the variety of stimulus measures introduced have helped to get the economy going again, with Canada’s five big banks projecting that Saskatchewan’s economy will grow between 4.1% to 4.8% in 2021,[1] and fall slightly to between 3.2% and 4.6% in 2022. Due to the recovering economy, the banks are also projecting that unemployment levels will continue to decline into 2022. Although the Saskatchewan market faces long-term structural challenges, the current optimism helps to set the stage for a strong [residential] real estate market in 2021.

Consumers are also fairly confident and expect to increase their level of spending in 2021 which will further help to stimulate the economy. Nesto, an online brokerage, found that 60% of Canadians were looking to buy a new property, while a Leger survey (conducted for RE/MAX) found that 52% of Canadians expect real estate to be one of the best investments of 2021.

An RBC poll found that although only 18% of Canadians feel that the economy is stable, almost 45% feel that the housing market continues to be strong. The same poll also found that four out of five people think that owning a home is a good investment.

According to Bloomberg-Nanos, 23.2% of its respondents in the prairies felt that home prices would increase over the next six months (up from a low of 12.3% in November) while 12.9% felt that they were better off financially than they were a year ago (up from a low of 4.2% in December).

This suggests that it’s better to buy now than to wait and have to pay more (or risk being priced out of the market).

And this optimism is justified. While the pandemic has been hard for some financially (particularly those in the hospitality and retail sectors), those who were able to transition and work from home and who were able to keep working are generally better off than they were pre-pandemic.

Because of pandemic restrictions, people have been forced to save, and on average, Canadians were able to save almost fives times more of their disposable income in 2020 than in previous years, and household net worth increased more than $600B over the first six months of the pandemic.

Although the savings rate will likely fall as restrictions are eased, the fact is that people have more saved to use towards a down payment for a new home. And with interest rates at such low levels, potential buyers whose jobs haven’t been impacted by COVID should find it a very attractive time to buy.

So, what does this all suggest for the Saskatchewan market?

Until the province went into lockdown in March last year, seasonally adjusted inventory steadily increased since February of 2012, suggesting rising supply/falling demand, putting downward pressure on prices since October of 2014.

Unsurprisingly, Saskatchewan MLS® data shows a sharp spike in inventory in March and April when sales were pretty much non-existent (due to COVID restrictions) followed by a dramatic drop which levelled off somewhat in August, but that has continued to fall. At the same time, we’ve seen prices going up (dipping a little in November and December).

And then in terms of sales, we saw the strongest year-over-year January since 2012, while at the same time, the number of new listings continues to fall, suggesting strong demand and weakening supply—conditions that could continue to put upward pressure on prices and make it harder for would-be buyers to get the home that they want.

Again, we’ve seen that conditions are right for strong demand. The economy is expected to grow, unemployment is expected to fall, we’re in a very low interest rate environment, and people have higher savings. We can also immigration and shrinking household sizes to increase demand

We also know that homebuilders haven’t been able to keep up with the demand that already exists, and increased demand will only help to widen the supply gap, putting greater upward pressure on prices, making it harder for people to buy homes.

And while many are hopeful that the COVID vaccines will be a panacea and help global economies return to normal in 2021, various factors (e.g., anti-vaccine sentiment, distribution of the vaccine) are likely to stymie efforts to eradicate the pandemic. We’ve already seen vaccine shipment delays, and it’s going to take some time to vaccinate enough people around the world to truly offer protection.

As a result, we’re probably not going to see people travelling much, if at all, and we’re still not going to be able to gather in really large numbers. People will likely continue to be stuck at home THINKING about what they want in their homes and spaces, and either look for something new, or renovate their existing space. This could be a further boon to the real estate market just like it was in 2020, making it a great opportunity for those who missed last year’s boom.

Chris Gbekorbu, Economic Analyst

Saskatchewan REALTORS® Association

306-791-2706 

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